Around 1994, most mobile phone brands with global ambitions vanished or pulled back to their home markets. The same happened around 2003. We are now drawing close to another mobile Götterdämmerung, a period of destruction and mayhem — and few vendors will survive it.

Back in 1993-1995, the Great Reckoning was triggered by the transition from analog networks to digital networks (GSM, TDMA, CDMA). Most handset vendors were taken by surprise when GSM suddenly took off faster than expected. Companies with serious analog phone development programs (IBM, Benefon, Blaupunkt, OKI, etc.) simply could not handle the rapid change.

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